00100	\\M0BDR25;\M1BDI25;\M2NGR30;\M3XMAS25;\M4NGB25;\.     \F2\CARTIFICIAL
00200	INTELLIGENCE  LABORATORY  \CCOMPUTER  SCIENCE  DEPARTMENT  \CSTANFORD
00300	UNIVERSITY \CSTANFORD, CALIFORNIA 94305 \F0
00400	
00500	Dear Mr. Cole:
00600	
00700		I  am organizing a symposium for the February 1974 meeting of
00800	the American Association for the Advancement  of  Science  (AAAS)  on
00900	\F1The  long term future of the automobile\F0.   The speakers will be
01000	asked to address themselves to the following questions:
01100	
01200		1. Does the automobile provide advantages over other modes of
01300	transportation that are worth preserving?
01400	
01500		2.    Can  the  problems  of  energy  supply,  resources, and
01600	pollution be solved satisfactorily on a long term basis?
01700	
01800		3. Can the automobile be made yet more useful than it is?
01900	
02000		Personally, I would answer yes to all these questions, but as
02100	you know, there are other opinions.
02200	
02300		I  would  appreciate  your help in getting a speaker from the
02400	automobile industry who would  give  a  well  thought  out  and  well
02500	prepared  presentation on these questions.   It would also be good if
02600	the presentation were authoritative in that it  would  represent  the
02700	position  of  the  industry  or  at  least the company from which the
02800	speaker came.     From this point of view  you  or  some  other  high
02900	official  would be good, but it is even more important that the ideas
03000	presented be well thought out than that the views be officieal.
03100	
03200		I have in  mind  the  following  kinds  of  speakers:  (i)  A
03300	representative  of  the  automobile  industry.    (ii)  A  scientific
03400	opponent of the automobile  -  i.e.   someone  who  thinks  that  the
03500	problems  of  resources,  energy, and environment require a switch to
03600	another mode of transportation.  (iii) A  humanist  opponent  of  the
03700	automobile  who  thinks the problems shouldn't be solved even if they
03800	could.  (iv) One or two advocates of keeping all the benefits of  the
03900	automobile  but  advocating  some  specific  advanced  technology for
04000	solving the problems.   I will participate  in  the  latter  category
04100	being an advocate of computer driving of cars.
04200	
04300		The AAAS has expressed interest in including the symposium in
04400	the program of the meeting but wants more detail on  speakers  before
04500	making  a  commitment.  After they commit themselves and the speakers
04600	are determined, I plan a telephone meeting of the speakers so that we
04700	can know each others positions in advance.
04800	
04900		Here  are  some  of  the more detailed questions speakers may
05000	want to address:
05100	
05200		1.  When must petroleum be  replaced  by  another  source  of
05300	energy?   What  might this be?  What is available at what cost?  E.g.
05400	one calculation indicates that if crude oil ever went  to  $8.00  per
05500	barrel,  it  could  be replaced by hydrogen made by decomposing water
05600	with nuclear energy.  What are the most likely solutions?
05700	
05800		2.  What level of emission control is most cost-effective  at
05900	forseeable levels of technology?
06000	
06100		3.  What  are  the long term resources problems for materials
06200	for making cars?
06300	
06400		4.  At what level will the per capita use of  automobiles  in
06500	the United States saturate? Who will benefit and who will suffer from
06600	the increased use of cars as saturation is approached?
06650	
06675		5. What effects will the various proposed regulatory policies
06687	have?
06700	
06800		Sincerely yours,
06900	
07000	
07100	
07200		John McCarthy
07300		Professor of Computer Science
07400		Director, Artificial Intelligence Laboratory